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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Feb 03 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
03 Feb 2025	220	016
04 Feb 2025	222	021
05 Feb 2025	226	012

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity reached high levels, with 10 M-class flares and several C-class flares recorded over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M8.8 flare (SIDC Flare 3465) peaking at 03:58 UTC on February 03, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981). There are currently eight numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981), that has grown in size and became magnetically more complex (from beta to beta-gamma-delta) was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours together with SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 3977, beta-gamma). Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 389 (NOAA Active Region 3979; beta), that is currently approaching the west limb. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

Two halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data at 05:36 UTC and 21:24 UTC on February 02, directed primarily to the south/southwest from Earth's perspective. Both CMEs have no clear on-disk signatures and are deemed to be back-sided. Therefore, no impact on solar wind conditions near Earth is expected.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were reflecting the waning influence of a high speed stream (HSS). The solar wind speed decreased from values about 580 km/s to 450 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was about 11 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -6 nT and 10 nT, being mainly positive. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain disturbed in the next 24 hours due to the ongoing influence of the HSS and a possible arrival of a CME that left the Sun on January 30.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active conditions both globally and locally, over Belgium (NOAA Kp: 4+, K Bel: 4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance of reaching active or minor storm conditions over the next 24 hours, due to possible CME arrival.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 179, na základě 16 stanic.

Solární indexy za 02 Feb 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	216
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	020
Odhadovaný Ap	022
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	168 - Na základě 20 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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