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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Feb 06 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
06 Feb 2025	190	014
07 Feb 2025	188	015
08 Feb 2025	186	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity reached high levels, with one M-class flare and multiple C-class flares recorded over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M7.6 flare (SIDC Flare 3524) peaking at 11:04 UTC on February 06, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981; beta-gamma). There are currently nine numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981; beta-gamma-delta), that is largest and magnetically most complex active region on the disk was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours together with SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 3977, beta-gamma). Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3978; beta), SIDC Sunspot Group 388 (NOAA Active Region 3976; beta) and SIDC Sunspot Group 395 (NOAA Active Region 3984; beta). Other regions on the disk have simple configurations of their photospheric magnetic fields (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. Further analysis of the CME observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 02:12 UTC on February 05 indicates that no impact on Earth is expected.

Koronální díra

A negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 88) began crossing the central meridian today, February 06. An associated high- speed stream may arrive at Earth on February 09.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) became slightly elevated. The interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum value of 11 nT at 03:57 on February 06. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -7 nT and 7 nT. The solar wind speed varied between 360 and 470 km/s. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next days, although minor enhancements in the solar wind speed and magnetic field may be possible on February 06 - 07 due to possible arrival of a CME that left the Sun on February 02.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled both globally and locally over Belgium (NOAA Kp: 1-3; K-Bel: 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly quiet to unsettled, with a chance of reaching active or minor storm conditions on February 06 - 07, due to possible CME arrival.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. There is a slight chance that the proton flux may increase if any high energy flares or eruptions occur.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 173, na základě 10 stanic.

Solární indexy za 05 Feb 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	191
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	006
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	159 - Na základě 19 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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