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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Feb 23 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
23 Feb 2025	199	022
24 Feb 2025	201	016
25 Feb 2025	203	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

A total of 13 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 3 M-class flare identified. The largest one was an M4.9 flare (SIDC Flare 3688) peaking on February 23 at 02:13 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 410 (NOAA Active Region 4001). Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed in the last 24 hours.

Solární bouře

The solar wind speed at Earth is around 330 km/s, with the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude currently around 5 nT. Similar slow solar wind conditions are expected to persist for the next 24 hours. However, the CME that left the Sun early on 20 February, may arrive in the next 24 hours and cause disturbed conditions.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet locally (K_Bel up to 2) and up to unsettled levels globally (Kp up to 3). Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours, with possible disturbed conditions if the CME from 20 February arrives.

Úrovně protonového toku

The 10 MeV proton flux remained below the threshold level. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, but a warning condition has been raised since several complex active regions are showing increasing activity in the western hemisphere.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 10 MeV GOES 16 and 18 electron flux has been below the threshold in the last 24 hours It is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is currently at normal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 179, na základě 13 stanic.

Solární indexy za 22 Feb 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	199
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	007
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	177 - Na základě 09 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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