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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Feb 24 1253 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
24 Feb 2025	211	014
25 Feb 2025	210	008
26 Feb 2025	210	006

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was at high levels over the past 24 hours with an impulsive X2.0-flare, start time 19:22 UTC, end time 19:34 UTC, peak time 19:27 UTC on Feb 23. The X-flaring was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 410 (NOAA Active Region 4001) from the west limb. A total of 13 numbered sunspot groups were identified with SIDC Sunspot Group 409 (NOAA Active Region 4000) being the most complex region on the visible solar disc. It is classified as magnetic type beta-gamma- delta and has produced an impulsive M3.3-flare with peak time 07:02 UTC on Feb 24. Another very notable and rather large region is SIDC Sunspot Group 408 (NOAA Active Region 3998). It is classified as magnetic type beta-gamma and was responsible for multiple C-class and a low M-class flaring. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with very likely M-class flares and 25% chances for X-flaring.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A fast partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) with a projected velocity close to 1900 km/s was first detected in the LASCO/C2 data at 19:48 UTC on Feb 23. The eruption is related to an X2.0 flare with peak time 19:27 UTC, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 410 (NOAA Active Region 4001) from behind the west limb. The CME is estimated to be back-sided and is not expected to arrive at Earth. Another fast wide westward CME was visible in LASCO/C2 data at 06:12 UTC on Feb 24, accompanied by activity at the west limb as well as an on disc dimming and a related filament eruption in the north-west quadrant. Preliminary analysis suggests that the bulk of the CME is headed off the Sun-Earth line. Further analysis is ongoing to estimate any potential impacts at Earth.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected moderately disturbed solar wind conditions, possible related to an expected arrival of the CME from Feb 20. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field, B, reached 15.5 nT with a minimum Bz of -9.6 nT. The solar wind speed varied between 300 and 400 km/s. The B field phi angle has switched orientation from the positive sector to the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at slightly disturbed levels over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Predominantly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with chances for isolated active periods related to the ongoing solar wind disturbance at Earth.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has shown gradual enhancements possibly related to the fast coronal coronal mass ejection first detected in the LASCO/C2 data at 06:12 UTC on Feb 24. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to exhibit further increase with some chances of reaching minor radiation storm levels over the 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 10 MeV GOES 16 and GOES 18 electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 156, na základě 08 stanic.

Solární indexy za 23 Feb 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	210
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	007
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	180 - Na základě 15 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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