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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Mar 06 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
06 Mar 2025	155	010
07 Mar 2025	160	006
08 Mar 2025	165	008

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only a small number of C-class flares identified. SIDC Sunspot Group 387 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 4007, Beta magnetic configuration) and SIDC Sunspot Group 427 (NOAA AR 4016, Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration) produced all the flaring activity of the last 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 423 (NOAA AR 4012, Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration) is the most complex AR and is expected to produce most of the flaring activity of the next 24 hours and likely M-class flare(s). The same AR has also a chance to produce an X-class flare in the next 24 hours.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

A Large coronal hole (CH) with negative polarity (SIDC CH 88) started crossing the central solar meridian during the past 24 hours. The associated High Speed Stream (HSS) has possibly been observed by the MAG instrument onboard Solar Orbiter (located at 0.56 AU from the Sun and 11.7 degrees east of Earth). The HSS was first detected by MAG on 5 Mar and this likely indicates an HSS arrival at Earth on 8 or 9 Mar.

Solární bouře

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours. The SW speed fluctuated between 340 and 480 km/s, while the interplanetary magnetic field (B) ranged between 2 to 9 nT in the last 24 hours. Its North-South component (Bz) registered values between -6 and 8 nT during the same period. The SW conditions are expected to remain in the slow SW regime over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were both globally and locally quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 2- to 3 and K BEL 2 to 3) during the past 24 hours. In the next 24 hours they are expected to remain at this level of activity.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so in the next 24 hours. Nevertheless, there is a small chance that a proton event might occur during the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, marginally exceed the 1000 pfu threshold on 5 Mar between 19:10 and 21:30 UTC. For the next 24 hours it is expected to remain below but close to the threshold. The 24h electron fluence remain at normal levels during the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain at normal levels for the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 134, na základě 21 stanic.

Solární indexy za 05 Mar 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	157
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	014
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	145 - Na základě 25 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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