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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Mar 08 1255 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
08 Mar 2025	147	013
09 Mar 2025	150	022
10 Mar 2025	152	015

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with an M1.6 flare detected on 7 Mar at 21:00 UTC (SIDC flare 3785). It was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 427 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 4016, Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration), while most of the flaring activity was associated with the neighboring SIDC Sunspot Group 423 (NOAA Active Region 4012, Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration). For the next 24 hours the flaring activity is expected to drop to low levels, although isolated M-class flare(s) are also possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images and was detected by CACTus as launched on 7 Sep at 19:48 UTC. However, LASCO-C3/SOHO imagery reveals that it is in fact two different CME, the first launched from an Active Region [AR] at the west solar limb and the second from SIDC Sunspot Group 427 (NOAA AR 4016) and is associated with the M1.6 flare (SIDC flare 3785) registered at 21:00 UTC. Although none of the two CME are partial halo, the later might deliver a glancing blow on 10 Sep due to the AR's location.

Solární bouře

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were affected by the earlier than expected arrival of a High Speed Stream (HSS), on 8 Mar at 03:30 UTC. However, so far it appears to be a comparatively slow HSS as the SW speed increased to 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (B) increased to 15 nT and Its North-South component (Bz) registered values between -9 and 8 nT during the same period. The SW conditions are expected to remain affected by the HSS during the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

During the last 24 hours the global geomagnetic conditions reached active levels (NOAA Kp 4-) for a short period of time. Locally the conditions remained at unsettled levels (K BEL 1 to 3). The conditions are expected to fluctuate between active and quiet levels in the next 24 hours due to the arrival on 8 Mar of the expected High Speed Stream (HSS).

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so in the next 24 hours. Nevertheless, there is a small chance that a proton event might occur during the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, marginally exceed the 1000 pfu threshold on 7 Mar for a few minutes. For the next 24 hours it is expected to remain below but close to the threshold. The 24h electron fluence remained at normal levels during the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain at normal levels for the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 093, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 07 Mar 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	147
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	011
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	111 - Na základě 20 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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