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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Feb 09 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
09 Feb 2025	171	014
10 Feb 2025	167	031
11 Feb 2025	163	012

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was at low levels, with multiple C-class flares recorded over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C8.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3560) peaking at 12:54 UTC on February 08, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Regions 3978; beta- gamma). There are currently ten numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 395 (NOAA Active Region 3984; beta) was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours together with SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3978; beta-gamma) and SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981; beta-delta), that are currently the largest and magnetically most complex active regions on the disk and are currently approaching the west limb. A new, currently unnumbered active region has rotated on disk from the east limb, in the northeast quadrant, but remained quiet. Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 3977; alpha). Other regions on the disk have simple configurations of their photospheric magnetic fields (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A faint and slow coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data at 10:12 UTC on February 08, directed primarily to the west from Earth's perspective. The CME is likely associated to M2.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3554), produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981). This CME is very faint, not clearly visible in STEREO A COR2, and is not expected to produce significant impact on Earth. Should any of the plasma arrive, possibly on February 12, it will probably be mixed with high speed streams on its way. No other Earth- directed CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Koronální díra

A low-latitude, negative-polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 88) began crossing the central meridian on February 09. An associated high-speed stream may arrive at Earth late on February 12.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind conditions (ACE and DSCOVR) became slightly disturbed with the interplanetary magnetic field reached 18 nT at around 10:33 UTC on February 09. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between -6 nT and 14 nT. The solar wind speed followed an increasing trend, rising from 310 km/s to 410 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation switched to the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun) from 08:50 UTC on February 09. This might be associated with arrival of the compression region in front of the expected high-speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 88). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly elevated on February 09 - 10, while the Earth remains under the influence for the high-speed stream.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled both globally and locally over Belgium (NOAA Kp: 1-3; K-Bel:1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach active or minor storm levels over the next days in response to the high-speed stream arrival.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. There is a slight chance that the proton flux may increase if any high energy flares or eruptions occur.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 119, na základě 04 stanic.

Solární indexy za 08 Feb 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	173
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	009
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	123 - Na základě 08 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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