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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Mar 13 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
13 Mar 2025	165	024
14 Mar 2025	167	007
15 Mar 2025	168	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C6.8 flare (SIDC Flare 3823) peaking on March 13 at 07:52 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 423 (NOAA Active Region 4012). A total of 11 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 428 (NOAA Active Region 4019) and SIDC Sunspot Group 398 (NOAA Active Region 4021) have the most complex magnetic configuration (Beta_Delta). SIDC Sunspot Group 405 (NOAA Active Region 4028) has turned on disk on the east limb and was responsible for most of the C-class flaring over the past 24h. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Solární bouře

In the last 24 hours, Earth was under the influence of the high speed stream (HSS) from the negative polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on March 10. The solar wind speed increased to 560 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached 12 nT and now gradually reduced to 7 nT. The North-South component (Bz) reached minimum value of -9 nT. In the next 24 hours, we expect a gradual transition from fast to slow solar wind.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were at minor storm levels globally (Kp 5) and active conditions locally (K Bel 4) since mid of March 12 due to a high-speed stream arrival. Unsettled to active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold on March 12, but are currently below the threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be high and occasionally above the 1000 pfu threshold in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 164, na základě 14 stanic.

Solární indexy za 12 Mar 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	160
AK Chambon La Forêt	046
AK Wingst	029
Odhadovaný Ap	035
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	158 - Na základě 15 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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