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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Mar 14 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
14 Mar 2025	170	028
15 Mar 2025	175	007
16 Mar 2025	178	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C7.9 flare (SIDC Flare 3832) peaking on March 13 at 19:35 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 428 (NOAA Active Region 4019). A total of 11 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 398 (NOAA Active Region 4021) and SIDC Sunspot Group 428 (NOAA Active Region 4019) have the most complex magnetic configuration (Beta-Delta). Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Koronální díra

A small negative polarity mid-latitude coronal hole first reached the central meridian mid March 13. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on March 16.

Solární bouře

Earth continued to be under the influence of high speed streams (HSS). The solar wind speed ranged from 500 km/s to 560 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was around 8 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -7 nT. In the next 24 hours, we expect a gradual transition from fast to slow solar wind.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were mainly active to minor storm levels, but reached moderate storm levels during an isolated period beginning of March 14 (Kp 6-). Unsettled are expected in the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold for most of the time during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain above the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 171, na základě 11 stanic.

Solární indexy za 13 Mar 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	175
AK Chambon La Forêt	043
AK Wingst	031
Odhadovaný Ap	037
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	165 - Na základě 16 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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