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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Mar 19 1250 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
19 Mar 2025	183	013
20 Mar 2025	179	016
21 Mar 2025	175	013

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

A total of 12 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C2.1 flare (SIDC Flare 3875) peaking on March 18 at 21:12 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 405 (NOAA Active Regions 3996, 4028). SIDC Sunspot Groups 405 and 440 (NOAA Active Region 4028 and 4031) are the most complex regions on disk with Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration. SIDC Sunspot Group 428 (NOAA Active Region 4019) has started to rotate over the west limb. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Koronální díra

SIDC Coronal Hole 93 (equatorial coronal hole with a negative polarity) started to cross the central meridian on March 19.

Solární bouře

In the past 24 hours solar wind conditions at Earth became disturbed, due to the arrival of a high-speed stream (HSS). The total interplanetary magnetic ranged from 5 nT to 13 nT, with the Bz component reaching a minimum of -11 nT. The solar wind speed, as measured by ACE, ranged from 350 km/s to 570 km/s. There was a data gap in ACE solar wind data between 00 UTC and 06 UTC. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive sector. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain disturbed in the next 24 hours due to the ongoing influence of the HSS and the possible arrival of a CME that left the Sun on March 17.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours globally and locally reached active conditions (Kp 4 K & BEL 4). Active conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18 satellites, exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold between 17:05 UTC and 17:15 UTC and between 20:25 UTC and 20:55 UTC on March 18. The electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 167, na základě 16 stanic.

Solární indexy za 18 Mar 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	184
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	013
Odhadovaný Ap	014
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	193 - Na základě 22 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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