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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Mar 20 1240 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
20 Mar 2025	176	010
21 Mar 2025	170	010
22 Mar 2025	164	011

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was moderate, with 1 M-class flare identified. The largest flare was a M1.5 flare (SIDC Flare 3879) peaking on March 19 at 20:40 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 440 (NOAA Active Region 4031). This region is the most magnetically complex region on disk with a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration. SIDC 433 (NOAA 4022) has started to rotate over the west limb. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A filament eruption on the west limb was detected in SDO/AIA 30.4 nm imagery around 22:50 UTC on March 19. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) is visible in LASCO/C2 imagery around 23:36 UTC on March 19. The CME is not expected to arrive at Earth. No other CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Koronální díra

SIDC Coronal Hole 93 (equatorial coronal hole with a negative polarity) which started to cross the central meridian on March 19 is still residing on the central meridian. The high-speed stream emanating from this coronal hole is expected to arrive at Earth on March 23.

Solární bouře

In the past 24 hours solar wind conditions at Earth were under the waning influence of a high-speed stream (HSS). The total interplanetary magnetic ranged from 3 nT to 8 nT, with the Bz component reaching a minimum of -7 nT. The solar wind speed ranged from 427 km/s to 520 km/s. The phi- angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive sector. The solar wind conditions are expected to return towards slow solar wind levels over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached minor storm conditions globally (Kp 5) and active conditions (K BEL 4). Predominantly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18 satellites, exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold between 18:05 UTC and 23:50 UTC on March 19. The electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 171, na základě 19 stanic.

Solární indexy za 19 Mar 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	180
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	018
Odhadovaný Ap	022
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	170 - Na základě 24 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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