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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Mar 23 1235 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
23 Mar 2025	174	037
24 Mar 2025	171	039
25 Mar 2025	167	021

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C5.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3889) peaking on March 22 at 17:27 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 412 (NOAA Active Region 4035). SIDC Sunspot Group 450 (NOAA Active Region 4036) has a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration and is the largest and most complex region on disk but was quiet. The other regions on disk were either stable or in decay and mostly quiet. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and isolated M-class flares possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A faint, wide Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) directed to the south-east was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 from March 22 16:00 UTC, associated with a filament eruption just to the south-east of disk centre seen in SDO/AIA 304 data from 15:19 UTC March 23. This CME may have an Earth directed component and is currently being analysed. No other Earth- directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph data.

Koronální díra

SIDC Coronal Hole 60 (mid-latitude coronal hole with a positive polarity) began to traverse the central meridian on March 23 and the associated high speed stream is expected to arrive at Earth on March 26.

Solární bouře

At the start of the period the solar wind parameters were enhanced reflecting the ongoing ICME passage before gradually reducing. The interplanetary magnetic field strength decreased from 15nT to values around 5nT. The Bz reached a minimum value of -10nT and was consistently negative. The solar wind speed reached a maximum value of 520 km/s and then decreased gradually to values around 420 km/s by the end of the period. The solar wind speed and magnetic field are expected be enhanced over the next 24 hours due to the expected high-speed stream associated with the negative polarity coronal hole which began to cross the central meridian March 19 and due to possible arrival of the CME from March 21.

Geomagnetismus

In the past 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp 5- between March 22 21:00 and March 23 00:00 UTC). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach active to minor storm conditions on March 23 and 24, with intervals of moderate storm conditions possible, due to the high-speed stream effects and possible CME arrival.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux as measured by GOES-18 remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 139, na základě 12 stanic.

Solární indexy za 22 Mar 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	178
AK Chambon La Forêt	034
AK Wingst	029
Odhadovaný Ap	032
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	180 - Na základě 16 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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