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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Mar 28 1244 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
28 Mar 2025	156	019
29 Mar 2025	155	039
30 Mar 2025	153	025

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C8.8 flare (SIDC Flare 3926) peaking at 22:24 UTC on March 27, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 455 (NOAA Active Region 4043). During the flare, the source region (SIDC 455) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 5 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Presently, four sunspot groups (SIDC Sunspot Groups 4035, 4041, 4043, and 4044) have beta magnetic configurations. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a small chance of X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

All three positive polarity SIDC Coronal Holes 60, 82, and 96 have crossed the central meridian. These coronal holes are the extension of southern polar coronal hole extending all across the solar equator. The high speed streams originating from these coronal holes are expected to impact the Earth until Mar 30.

Solární bouře

Earth is still under the influence of fast solar wind. The solar wind speed ranged from 580 km/s to 840 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 2 nT to 9 nT, and the North-South component (Bz) ranged from -8 nT to 8 nT. In the next 24 hours, enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to continue with the continuous arrival of high speed streams from the positive polarity coronal holes (SIDC Coronal Holes 60, 82, and 96) which are the extension of southern polar coronal hole extending all across the solar equator.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally at quiet to minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp 2 to 5), and locally at quiet to active conditions (K_BEL 2 to 4) during the past 24 hours. The disturbed geomagnetic conditions was due to the arrival of high speed streams (HSSs) from the SIDC Coronal Hole 60, 82, and 96. In the next 24 hours, active to moderate storm conditions (K 4 to 6) are possible with the continuous arrival of HSSs from three, positive polarity coronal holes which are the extension of southern polar coronal hole extending all across the solar equator.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux remained below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18 satellite, mostly remained below the threshold level, except from 21:00 UTC on Mar 27 to 00:15 UTC on Mar 28, when it fluctuated around the threshold level. In the next 24 hours, the electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold level, but increasing above the threshold level cannot be excluded. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 078, na základě 12 stanic.

Solární indexy za 27 Mar 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	129
10cm sluneční tok	153
AK Chambon La Forêt	038
AK Wingst	026
Odhadovaný Ap	029
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	082 - Na základě 27 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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