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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Mar 01 1237 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
01 Mar 2025	154	024
02 Mar 2025	156	017
03 Mar 2025	158	006

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours. A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the visible solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 4006), SIDC Sunspot Group 416 (NOAA Active Region 4007), SIDC Sunspot Group 420 (NOAA Active Region 4009) and SIDC Sunspot Group 417 (NOAA Active Region 4010) are all classified as magnetic type beta and have contributed to the low levels of flaring activity. The strongest activity was a C6.4 flare (SIDC Flare 3732) peaking on March 01 at 08:30 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 417. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with 30% chances for M-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A filament eruption near W60N05 was visible around 16:30 UTC on Feb 28, preceding a fast and strong partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) first detected in LASCO/C2 imagery around 17:12 UTC on Feb 28. A type II radio burst related to the partial halo CME was detected around 17:00 UTC on Feb 28 with estimated velocity of 1151 km/s. The CME is estimated to be back-sided and is not expected to arrive at Earth. Currently no CME associated to the on disc filament eruption can be identified in the available coronagraph data. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) continued to be disturbed by an ongoing high speed stream (HSS) arrival. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field, B, was moderate with a maximum value of 11.4 nT and a minimum Bz of -8.9 nT. The solar wind speed was relatively high, exceeding 800 km/s. The B field phi angle remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) reflecting the polarity of the geo-effective coronal holes. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain disturbed over the next two days under the ongoing influence of high speed streams.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours globally varied between quiet and minor storm levels. Locally over Belgium mostly unsettled to active conditions were observed. Quiet to conditions with probably isolated minor storms are expected for the next 24 hours and mostly quiet to active conditions are expected on Mar 02. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected on Mar 03.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours with possible minor enhancements due to shock-accelerated particles related to the back-sided partial halo CME from Feb 28.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 10 MeV GOES 16 electron flux has remained below the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours. It is expected to exceed the 1000 pfu threshold in the upcoming days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 106, na základě 05 stanic.

Solární indexy za 28 Feb 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	194
10cm sluneční tok	155
AK Chambon La Forêt	037
AK Wingst	032
Odhadovaný Ap	033
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	117 - Na základě 29 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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