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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Mar 30 1249 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
30 Mar 2025	155	020
31 Mar 2025	153	038
01 Apr 2025	151	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 3 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M1.9 flare (SIDC Flare 3953) peaking at 23:00 UTC on March 29, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 461 (NOAA Active Region 4048). A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 455 (NOAA Active Region 4043) is the complex region with its beta-gamma magnetic configurations. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours with M-class flares expected, and a chance of X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A filament erupted in the NE quadrant around 01:00 UTC on Mar 30, but no associated CME was found in the available SOHO/LASCO-C2 images. Another filament erupted (around 08:00 UT on Mar 30) in the NW quadrant leading to a CME seen around 08:55 UTC on Mar 30, and the initial analysis suggests that this CME is not expected to arrive at Earth. No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

Solární bouře

Solar wind parameters are transitioning from fast to slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed has decreased from 530 km/s and 430 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -5 and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 2 nT to 7 nT. Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected in the next 24 hours, due to the possible arrival of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) associated with a partial halo CME that was observed lifting from the Sun on Mar 28.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp 1 to 3) and locally at quiet (K BEL 1 to 2). Active to moderate storm conditions (K 4 to 6) are expected in the next 24 hours, due to the possible arrival of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) associated with a partial halo CME that was observed lifting from the Sun on Mar 28.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux showed a small enhancement since 02:00 UTC on Mar 30, possibly associated with flaring activities from SIDC Sunspot Group 461 (NOAA Active Region 4048). However, it remained below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, continues to be above the 1000 pfu threshold level since 08:30 UTC on Mar 29 in response to the high speed streams associated with the SIDC Coronal Holes 60, 82, and 96. It is expected to remain above the threshold level in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, reached above the threshold level at 12:50 UTC on Mar 29 and dropped below the threshold level at 04:10 UTC on Mar 30. It is expected to increase above the threshold level in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at moderate level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 122, na základě 11 stanic.

Solární indexy za 29 Mar 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	157
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	007
Odhadovaný Ap	008
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	093 - Na základě 15 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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