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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Jun 10 1239 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
10 Jun 2025	120	017
11 Jun 2025	120	029
12 Jun 2025	120	012

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity remained low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares recorded. A total of six numbered sunspot groups were present on the visible solar disk. The largest event was a C5.5 flare (SIDC Flare 4597), which peaked at 10:52 UTC on June 10 and was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 516 (NOAA Active Region 4107), which showed signs of growth and currently exhibits a Beta magnetic configuration. SIDC Sunspot Groups 496 (NOAA AR 4111, Alpha, stable) and 513 (NOAA AR 4105, Beta, stable) also contributed with minor C-class flaring activity. The presence of several Beta-type groups suggests that C-class flares are very likely, with a small chance of M-class flares over the next 24 hours.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

Several narow outflow were observed in the available LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. However, no clear Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were identified in data.

Koronální díra

SIDC Coronal Hole 104, a mid-latitude southern coronal hole with positive polarity, is still positioned on the eastern side of the Sun. SIDC Coronal Hole 118, an equatorial coronal hole with negative polarity, first crossed the central meridian on June 8 and has since moved toward the western limb around longitude 24 degree.

Solární bouře

Solar wind speed remained moderately enhanced over the past 24 hours, ranging between 400 km/s and 530 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) was elevated at the beginning of the period, reaching up to 9.0 nT, and then gradually declined and showed values below 5 nT over the last 6 hours. The southward component (Bz) fluctuated throughout the period, reaching a minimum of -7.2 nT early on, and then remained between approximately -4 nT and +4 nT during the last several hours. The phi angle remained predominantly in the negative sector. The arrival of high-speed solar wind streams is expected on June 10 and 11, associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 118, an equatorial coronal hole with negative polarity that crossed the central meridian on June 8 and is now nearing the western limb.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions remained quiet to unsettled both globally and locally throughout the past 24 hours (with NOAA Kp index peaked at 3, and the local K_BEL index reached values up to 3 as well). Over the next 24 hours, active conditions with possible storm-level (K-index up the 6) intervals are expected as Earth begins to experience the influence of the anticipated high-speed solar wind stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 118.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater-than-10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-18, remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to stay at nominal levels throughout the next 24 hours. No solar energetic particle events were detected, and none are currently anticipated.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater-than-2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold over the past 24 hours. Electron fluxes are expected to stay mostly below the alert threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence remained at normal to moderate levels and is anticipated to persist at those levels throughout the next day.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 115, na základě 24 stanic.

Solární indexy za 09 Jun 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	109
10cm sluneční tok	120
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	018
Odhadovaný Ap	019
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	084 - Na základě 24 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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