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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Jun 11 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
11 Jun 2025	130	016
12 Jun 2025	130	024
13 Jun 2025	130	011

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

A total of ten numbered sunspot groups were present on the visible solar disk over the past 24 hours. The X-ray flux showed an upward trend, reaching or being slightly above the C-class threshold. Nevertheless, solar flaring activity remained at low levels over the past 24 hours, with only multiple C-class flares recorded. The largest event was a C3.0 flare (SIDC Flare 4604), which peaked on June 10 at 21:58 UTC and was associated with a new region emerging over the eastern limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 516 (NOAA Active Region 4107), currently located at S15W44, remains the most magnetically complex region with a Beta-Gamma- Delta configuration and continued growth. It also produced most of the flaring activity. Additional C-class flares were observed from SIDC Sunspot Group 496 (NOAA Active Region 4111) and SIDC Sunspot Group 513 (NOAA Active Region 4105). Given the magnetic complexity and evolution of several active regions, C-class flares are very likely over the next 24 hours, with a chance for M-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

Several narow outflow were observed in the available LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. However, no clear Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were identified in data.

Koronální díra

SIDC Coronal Hole 104, a mid-latitude southern coronal hole with positive polarity, is still positioned on the eastern side of the Sun and will reach the central meridian at the end of the day. SIDC Coronal Hole 118, an equatorial coronal hole with negative polarity, first crossed the central meridian on June 8 and has since moved toward the western limb around longitude 24 degree.

Solární bouře

Solar wind conditions remained mildly disturbed over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed was moderately elevated, ranging between 390 km/s and 490 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) fluctuated between 2 nT and 7.9 nT, and the southward component (Bz) varied between -7.8 nT and +5.0 nT. The phi angle remained predominantly in the negative sector. The arrival of high-speed solar wind streams is expected on June 11 and 12, associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 118, an equatorial coronal hole with negative polarity that crossed the central meridian on June 8 and is now nearing the western limb.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions remained quiet to unsettled both globally and locally throughout the past 24 hours (with NOAA Kp index peaked at 3, and the local K_BEL index reached values up to 3 as well). Over the next 24 hours, active conditions with possible minor storm-level (K-index up the 5) intervals are expected as Earth begins to experience the influence of the anticipated high-speed solar wind stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 118.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater-than-10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-18, remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to stay at nominal levels throughout the next 24 hours. No solar energetic particle events were detected, and none are currently anticipated.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater-than-2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold over the past 24 hours. While the GOES-18 satellite briefly recorded values reaching this threshold. Electron fluxes are expected to stay mostly below the alert threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence remained at normal to moderate levels and is anticipated to persist at those levels throughout the next day.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 147, na základě 24 stanic.

Solární indexy za 10 Jun 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	145
10cm sluneční tok	129
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	009
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	113 - Na základě 32 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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