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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Aug 08 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
08 Aug 2025	149	011
09 Aug 2025	150	038
10 Aug 2025	153	036

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been moderate, with one M-class flare and a few C-class flares. The strongest flare was an M2.8 flare (SIDC Flare 5074) peaking at 03:53 UTC on August 08, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 588 (NOAA Active Region 4168, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta). There are currently twelve numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex ones are SIDC Sunspot Group 588 (NOAA Active Region 4168, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta) and SIDC Sunspot Group 590 (NOAA Active Region 4172, magnetic type beta- gamma). SIDC Sunspot Group 558 and 593 (both magnetic type alpha) have rotated on disc from the east limb, north of the solar equator. SIDC Sunspot Group 595 (magnetic type beta) has emerged in the northeast quadrant, northeast of SIDC Sunspot Group 522 (NOAA Active Region 4171). SIDC Sunspot Groups 555 and 591 (NOAA Active Regions 4161 and 4170, both magnetic type beta) are currently rotating behind the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate to high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 541) was observed in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 coronagraph imagery, starting from around 12:00 UTC on August 07, lifting off the west limb. An associated type IV radio emission was detected from 11:36 UTC on August 07. It is most likely associated with the M3.9 flare (SIDC Flare 5069) that peaked at 11:31 UTC on August 07. It is not expected to impact Earth. SIDC CME 542 was observed around 07:15 UTC in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 coronagraph imagery, lifting off the west limb. It is likely associated with the M2.8 flare (SIDC Flare 5074) peaking at 03:53 UTC on August 08. Preliminary analysis suggests that is not expected to impact Earth. SIDC CME 543 was detected around 06:30 UTC in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery, lifting off the southeast limb. It is likely associated with eruptive activity near the east limb and it is not expected to impact Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery over the last 24 hours

Koronální díra

The elongated, southern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 123) continues to cross the central meridian since August 06. The northern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 124) continues to cross the central meridian since August 07.

Solární bouře

The solar wind parameters (ACE) over the last 24 hours initially reflected slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased from 380 km/s to around 340 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was around 4 nT. The Bz component was around 2 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle phi was in the negative sector until 20:00 UTC on August 07, when it flipped to the positive sector. A possible early arrival of the high-speed stream from the southern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 123) has been likely observed since the early UTC morning of August 08. The magnetic field increased to around 12 nT and the Bz component is currently around -9 nT. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24-48 hours, under the combined effect of the high- speed stream and the expected ICME arrival, associated with the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 537) that lifted off around 17:15 UTC on August 05.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally were at quiet levels (NOAA Kp and K Bel 1 to 2) over the last 24 hours. Active to minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp 4 to 5), with possible moderate storm conditions (NOAA Kp 6) are expected over the next 24-48 hours, due to the arrival of the high-speed stream from the southern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 123) and the expected ICME arrival associated with the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 537) that lifted off around 17:15 UTC on August 05.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 was close to the 1000 pfu threshold but remained below during the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 19 remained below the 1000 pfu threshold during the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain mostly below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 194, na základě 20 stanic.

Solární indexy za 07 Aug 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	167
10cm sluneční tok	151
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Odhadovaný Ap	004
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	155 - Na základě 23 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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