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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Aug 09 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
09 Aug 2025	145	035
10 Aug 2025	143	032
11 Aug 2025	141	021

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been moderate, with one M-class flare and multiple C-class flares. The strongest flare was an M1.0 flare (SIDC Flare 5080) peaking at 19:10 UTC on August 08, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 588 (NOAA Active Region 4168, magnetic type beta-gamma). There are currently thirteen numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group 588 (NOAA Active Region 4168, magnetic type beta-gamma). SIDC Sunspot Group 596 (magnetic type beta) has emerged in the northwest quadrant. SIDC Sunspot Groups 555 and 591 (NOAA Active Regions 4161 and 4170, both magnetic type beta) are currently rotating behind the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate to high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A fast Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 544) was observed in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 coronagraph imagery, starting from around 19:00 UTC on August 08, lifting off the southwest limb. It is most likely associated with a C7.8 flare (SIDC Flare 5079) that peaked at 18:09 UTC on August 08. It is not expected to impact Earth. SIDC CMEs 545, 546, 547, 548 and 549 were observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery lifting off the east limb during the last 24 hours, associated with eruptive activity near or behind the east limb. They are not expected to impact Earth. SIDC CME was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery starting from around 08:50 UTC on August 09, lifting off the southwest limb. It is likely associated with eruptive activity near SIDC Sunspot Group 592 (NOAA Active Region 4173) and it is not expected to impact Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery over the last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

The elongated, southern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 123) continues to cross the central meridian since August 06. A northern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 125) is crossing the central meridian. An associated high-speed stream may arrive at Earth starting from the UTC evening on August 11.

Solární bouře

The solar wind parameters (ACE) over the last 24 hours were enhanced, under the influence of a high-speed stream from the southern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 123). The solar wind speed increased from 380 km/s to around 560 km/s and are currently around 480 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field increased to around 15 nT. The Bz component was mostly negative, reaching values up to -13 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle phi was in the positive sector, with a brief period of negative values between 21:00 UTC and 23:50 UTC on August 08. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24-48 hours, under the combined effect of the high-speed stream from SIDC Coronal Hole 123, the expected ICME arrival associated with the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 537) that lifted off around 17:15 UTC on August 05 and a second high-speed stream from the northern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 124).

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally were mostly at minor storm levels (NOAA Kp 5- to 5+) over the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions locally were mostly at active levels (K Bel 4) over the last 24 hours. Mostly minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp 5), with possible moderate storm periods (NOAA Kp 6) are expected over the next 24-48 hours, under the influence of the high-speed stream from the southern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 123), the expected ICME arrival associated with the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 537) that lifted off around 17:15 UTC on August 05 and a second high-speed stream from the northern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 124).

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES and GOES 19 remained below the 1000 pfu threshold during the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain mostly below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 166, na základě 20 stanic.

Solární indexy za 08 Aug 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	163
10cm sluneční tok	148
AK Chambon La Forêt	046
AK Wingst	022
Odhadovaný Ap	024
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	193 - Na základě 29 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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