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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Nov 02 1232 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
02 Nov 2025	115	016
03 Nov 2025	117	013
04 Nov 2025	119	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

A total of 2 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was moderate with an M1.0 flare (SIDC Flare 5889), peaking on November 02 at 00:26 UTC, originating from a sunspot group rotating into view over the east limb (located close to the equator). There are 3 new sunspot groups rotating into view that have been very active in the last days in terms of flares and CMEs. Therefore, solar activity is likely to increase in the next 24 hours, M-class flares can be expected.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

There are two coronal holes in the western hemisphere, both with positive polarity: SIDC Coronal Hole 123 (southern hemisphere) and SIDC Coronal Hole 129 (northern hemisphere).

Solární bouře

The Earth was under the influence of high speed solar wind from SIDC Coronal Hole 123 (southern hemisphere, positive polarity) and 129 (northern hemisphere, positive polarity). The solar wind speed reached 600 km/s, it is now at 550 km/s with an interplanetary magnetic field of 7 nT. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Additionally, there is a possible arrival of the SIDC CME 590 expected (around 3 November, 12:00 UTC).

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels (K_Bel up to 4 and Kp up to 4.33 or 4+). In the next 24 hours, similar conditions can be expected. The possible arrival of the SIDC CME 590 on 3 November may enhance the geomagnetic levels.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was above the 1000 pfu threshold after 12:00 UTC on 31 October. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain above the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels, it is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 043, na základě 12 stanic.

Solární indexy za 01 Nov 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	115
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	014
Odhadovaný Ap	014
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	020 - Na základě 11 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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