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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Nov 01 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
01 Nov 2025	125	016
02 Nov 2025	125	013
03 Nov 2025	125	014

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. A total of 3 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C7.1 flare (SIDC Flare 5887) peaking on October 31 at 20:43 UTC, from a region rotating into view over the east limb. This region has been producing important flares and CMEs in the last days, so we expect solar activity to increase due to it, C-class flares can be expected and M-class flares are likely.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A wide CME erupted towards the east first seen by LASCO C2 at 08:48 UTC on 31 October. This CME was followed by a second one at 20:12 UTC towards the NE. Both CMEs were backsided and will not arrive to the Earth.

Koronální díra

There are three positive polarity CHs in the western hemisphere. SIDC Coronal Hole 123 is the largest, located in the south. SIDC Coronal Hole 128 is smaller and located at the equator. Finally, SIDC Coronal Hole 129 has a considerable size and is located in the northern hemisphere.

Solární bouře

The solar wind speed has decreased to about 500 km/s, under the waning influence of the HSS from SIDC Coronal Hole 123, the interplanetary magnetic field is around 6 nT. We expect a gradual return to slow solar wind in the next 24 hours. Nevertheless, we may see instead the arrival of the high speed solar wind from SIDC Coronal Hole 129, located in the northern hemisphere (also positive polarity). This coronal hole is located above 20 degrees latitude, meaning that its HSS may miss the Earth. There is also a possible arrival, in the next 24 hours of the CME from 28 October (SIDC CME 589), but this will be a weak event.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels (Kp and K_Bel up to 4). In the next 24 hours, active to minor storm conditions can be expected if the HSS from SIDC Coronal Hole 129 and the CME from 28 October (SIDC CME 589) arrive.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was above the 1000 pfu threshold after 12:00 UTC on 31 October. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain above the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels, but increasing, it is expected to reach moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 023, na základě 06 stanic.

Solární indexy za 31 Oct 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	033
10cm sluneční tok	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	028
Odhadovaný Ap	026
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	044 - Na základě 22 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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