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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Nov 13 1245 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
13 Nov 2025	161	017
14 Nov 2025	155	019
15 Nov 2025	150	021

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. SIDC Sunspot Group (SG) 687 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 4274, Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration) produced most of the flaring activity. Among its activity was the brightest flare of the past 24 hours (SIDC flare 6035), a C6 that peaked on 13 Nov at 03:34 UTC. The only other flare-emitting region was SIDC SG 689 (NOAA AR 4276, Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration). It emitted two flares including the second and highest peak of the double-peaked SIDC flare 6055 on 13 Nov at 06:40 UTC. In the next 24 hours more C-class flaring activity is expected with a chance of an M-class flare from SIDC SG 687.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274) produced two Coronal Mass Ejections on 13 Nov at 00:24 UTC and at 03:48 UTC. As the later is significantly faster than the former, they are expected to merge and deliver a glancing blow at Earth's environment on 15 Nov at the first half.

Solární bouře

Solar Wind (SW) conditions were in the process of subsiding when another Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 600) arrived at Earth on 12 Nov at 18:50 UTC, as predicted. The SW speed had dropped to 600 km/s before the latest arrival but after the event increased to 1000 km/s and now registers values at around 850 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (B) peaked at 40 nT at the arrival of the CME but rapidly decreased and is now at the 10 nT. The B's North-South component (Bz) fluctuated between -17 and 28 nT between 12 Nov 18:50 UTC and 13 Nov 04:00 UTC but has since rapidly converged to close to zero values. The effects of the new CME arrival appear to be short-lived hence the magnetic field is expected to be weak in the next 24 hours. However, the SW speed is expected to decline very slowly and remain well above the 700 km/s level.

Geomagnetismus

The global geomagnetic conditions were at storm levels almost throughout the past 24 hours. More specifically they reached major storm levels (NOAA Kp 7+ and 7-) on 13 Nov between 00:00 UTC and 06:00 UTC. Moderate storm conditions (NOAA Kp 6) were registered on 12 Nov at 18:00-21:00 UTC and on 13 Nov at 06:00-09:00 UTC. Minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp 5+ and 5-) prevailed for the remaining of the past 24 hours, with the exception of the active levels observed on 13 Nov at 09:00-12:00 UTC. The local geomagnetic conditions were significantly milder with minor storm conditions (K BEL 5) only recorded on 13 Nov at 00:00-03:00 UTC. Unsettled to active conditions (K BEL 3-4) were registered during the rest of the past 24 hours. The global geomagnetic conditions are expected to significantly relax in the next 24 hours and range between minor storm and active levels. The local geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue to be milder and reach up to active levels.

Úrovně protonového toku

During the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, dropped very significantly and is now above but close to the 10 pfu threshold. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux has also decreased significantly and now is well below the 10 pfu threshold. The greater than 500 MeV has reached background noise levels during the past 24 hours. For the next 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to drop below the 10 pfu level and the greater than 100 MeV proton flux is expected to reach background noise levels.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the alert level in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels, it is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 134, na základě 11 stanic.

Solární indexy za 12 Nov 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	094
AK Wingst	130
Odhadovaný Ap	149
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	141 - Na základě 18 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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