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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Dec 10 1249 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
10 Dec 2025	181	012
11 Dec 2025	178	022
12 Dec 2025	176	012

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with four M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M1.9 flare (SIDC Flare 6377) peaking at 07:37 UTC on December 10, which was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 709 (NOAA Active Region 4294, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta). There are currently seven numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group 709 (NOAA Active Region 4294). SIDC Sunspot Group 719 and SIDC Sunspot Group 714 (NOAA Active Region 4300) have decayed into plage regions. SIDC Sunspot Group 713 (NOAA Active Region 4298) is currently rotating across the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery in the last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

A northern, north-south elongated, negative polarity coronal hole (returning SIDC Coronal Hole 142) is crossing the central meridian. An associated high-speed stream may arrive at Earth starting from December 13.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE) reflected mostly slow solar wind conditions. A small increase was observed in the solar wind parameters around 03:00 UTC on December 10, possibly due to an ongoing, weak influence of an ICME arrival. Speed values increased from 370 km/s to 430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values increased from 7 nT to 13 nT. The Bz component reached a minimum of -8 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) angle was in the negative sector until around 05:00 UTC on December 10, when it shifted to the positive sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions may be expected over the next 24 hours, due to the small chance of arrival of a glancing blow associated with the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 607, observed around 22:36 UTC on December 08).

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally were mostly at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 1 to 3, K BEL 1 to 3). Quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp 1 to 4), with a small chance of minor storm conditions, are expected over the next 24 hours due to the small chance of arrival of a glancing blow associated with the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 607, observed around 22:36 UTC on December 08).

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending no further eruptive activity from SIDC Sunspot Groups 709, 712 (NOAA Active Regions 4294, 4296).

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was close to the 1000 pfu threshold but remained mostly below it in the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold levels in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 133, na základě 10 stanic.

Solární indexy za 09 Dec 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	182
10cm sluneční tok	183
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	004
Odhadovaný Ap	003
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	154 - Na základě 13 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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