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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Nov 28 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
28 Nov 2025	127	016
29 Nov 2025	135	015
30 Nov 2025	150	012

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. SIDC Sunspot Group (SG) 709 has produced almost all the C-class flaring activity, although it is currently rotating into Earth's view and hence partially obstructed by the solar limb. The brightest flare of the past 24 hours was SIDC flare 6221, a C5, that peaked on 28 Nov at 05:54 UTC and is associated with the same SG. Although SIDC SG 709's magnetic configuration and development cannot currently be established, it is estimated that it will likely produce M-class flaring activity in the next 24 hours. There is also a small change of an X-class flare from the same SG.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

SIDC Coronal Hole 139 (a mid-latitude coronal hole with positive polarity) first reached the central meridian on November 28 and is now positioned on the eastern side of the Sun. Due to its small size and irregular shape there is only a small chance that an associated High Speed Stream (HSS) will reach the Earth's environment. If this effect materializes, it will not be before 2 Dec.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected the waning influence of a high-speed stream (HSS). The solar wind speed gradually decreased from about 700 km/s to 600 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (B) varied between 4 and 8 nT and its North- South component (Bz) fluctuated between -6 and 4 nT. The SW speed is expected to continue its slow decline and the magnetic field is expected continue at similar levels in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Both the global and local geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels (NOAA Kp 5- and K BEL 5) on Nov 27 at 18:00-21:00 UTC. For the rest of the past 24 hours, they were ranging between unsettled and active levels (NOAA Kp 3+ to 4, K BEL 3 to 4). The geomagnetic conditions of the next 24 hours are expected to follow a similar pattern, of mostly active levels with possibly short intervals of minor storm conditions.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, was at background levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so in the next 24 hours. Nevertheless there is a small chance that a proton event, associated with SIDC SG 709, might occur during the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-19, was above the 1000 pfu threshold during the past 24 hours with a peak value of 8200 pfu on 27 Nov at 13:05 UTC. The electron flux is expected to continue exceeding this threshold over the next day. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels during the past 24 hours. It is expected to feature a small increase in the next 24 hours and possibly reach high levels.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 084, na základě 13 stanic.

Solární indexy za 27 Nov 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	134
10cm sluneční tok	120
AK Chambon La Forêt	038
AK Wingst	026
Odhadovaný Ap	028
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	093 - Na základě 15 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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