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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Dec 02 1240 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
02 Dec 2025	198	005
03 Dec 2025	200	020
04 Dec 2025	202	018

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The strongest activity was a C4.8 flare with peak time 21:54 UTC on Dec 01, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 709 (NOAA Active Region 4294). A total of 10 sunspot groups were identified on the visible solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 709 remains the largest and most complex region, classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta. Other notable regions are SIDC Sunspot Group 712 (NOAA Active Region 4296) and SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4299), both classified as magnetic type beta-gamma, the later rotating more fully onto the visible disk. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with likely M-class flares and chances of isolated X-class flaring.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been identified in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Koronální díra

An negative polarity equatorial coronal hole (CH SIDC 140), which first crossed the central meridian on Nov 30 continues to reside there. A high speed stream emanating from it is expected to arrive at Earth from Dec 03 onwards.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (as measured by ACE at L1) were indicative of background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed varied in the range of 378 km/s to 508 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field, B, remained weak with a maximum value of 6.7 nT and a minimum Bz component of - 4.3 nT. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to be at background slow solar wind conditions until early UTC evening of Dec 03 when a mild high speed stream arrival related to coronal hole SIDC 140 is expected to arrive at Earth.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Predominantly quiet to unsettled condition are expected for the next 24 hours. Active levels and isolated minor storm conditions might be reached on Dec 03 and Dec 04 with an anticipated mild high speed stream arrival.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels. Some enhancements in the proton flux might be expected over the next days related to possible eruptive activity from SIDC Sunspot Group 687, SIDC Sunspot Group 709 or SIDC Sunspot Group 712.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 10 MeV electron flux (as measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19) has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours and is expected to exceed the threshold again over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 176, na základě 07 stanic.

Solární indexy za 01 Dec 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	184
10cm sluneční tok	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	011
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	145 - Na základě 09 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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