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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Dec 03 1237 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
03 Dec 2025	202	021
04 Dec 2025	202	018
05 Dec 2025	200	014

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels with only C-class flares identified. The strongest activity was a C5.4 flare (SIDC Flare 6271) with peak time 20:38 UTC on on Dec 02, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 703 (NOAA Active Region 4288). The region is classified as magnetic type beta and is currently approaching the west limb. A total of 11 sunspot groups were identified on the visible solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 709 (NOAA Active Region 4294) and SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4299) are the most complex regions, both classified as magnetic type beta-delta. The latter regions together with SIDC Sunspot Group 703 and SIDC Sunspot Group 713 (NOAA Active Region 4298) were responsible for most of the flaring activity throughout the past 24 hours. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with background C-class flaring, likely M-class flares and chances of isolated X-class flaring.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A large filament eruption is visible in the SDO/AIA 30.4 nm imagery in the western solar hemisphere, lifting off the solar surface around 10 UTC on Dec 03. Coronagraph imagery is awaited to estimate any possible Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) related to this eruption. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been identified in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (as measured by ACE at L1) were indicative of background slow solar wind conditions throughout Dec 02 and have registered small enhancements in the UTC morning of Dec 03. The registered solar wind speed was in the range of 353 km/s to 538 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field, B, has increased up 12.2 nT and a minimum Bz component of - 9.3 nT. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to register a mild high speed stream arrival related to a negative polarity coronal hole (CH SIDC 140), possibly mixed with a minor glancing blow influence from the partial halo CME associated with the X1.9-flare on Dec 01.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Predominantly unsettled to active conditions are expected for Dec 03 and Dec 04 with likely isolated minor storms and small chances for reaching moderate storm levels later on Dec 03.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days with chances for some enhancements in case of new strong flaring and eruptive activity.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 10 MeV electron flux (as measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19) has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours and is expected to exceed the threshold again over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 173, na základě 06 stanic.

Solární indexy za 02 Dec 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	217
10cm sluneční tok	200
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	013
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	170 - Na základě 10 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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