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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Dec 09 1234 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
09 Dec 2025	185	022
10 Dec 2025	184	010
11 Dec 2025	183	020

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with five M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M3.1 flare (SIDC Flare 6350) peaking at 21:17 UTC on December 8, which was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 709 (NOAA Active Region 4294, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta). There are currently nine numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group 709 (NOAA Active Region 4294). SIDC Sunspot Groups 719, 720 (both magnetic type beta) have emerged in the southeast quadrant. SIDC Sunspot Group 621 (NOAA Active Region 4295) has decayed into a plage region. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 607) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data starting at 22:36 UTC on December 08. The CME is directed primarily to the west from the Earth's perspective and is associated with the M1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 6344), peaking at 22:28 UTC on December 08, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4299). While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, a glancing blow could be possible from late on December 11. Further analysis is ongoing to better estimate its impact.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE) reflected mostly slow solar wind conditions. Speed values varied between 350 km/s and 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values were mostly stable around 7 nT until 08:00 UTC on December 09 when they increased up to 9 nT, due to a possible ICME arrival. The Bz component varied between 0 nT and -5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly in the negative sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions are possible over the next 24 hours due to the ongoing ICME influence

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally were mostly at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 1 to 2, K BEL 1 to 2). Quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp 1 to 4), with a small chance of minor storm conditions due to the ongoing ICME influence, are expected over the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was enhanced but remained below the 10 pfu threshold. The 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to remain so over the next days, with chances for further enhancements.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was close to the 1000 pfu threshold but remained mostly below it in the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain around the 1000 pfu threshold levels in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at moderate levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 157, na základě 09 stanic.

Solární indexy za 08 Dec 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	186
AK Chambon La Forêt	003
AK Wingst	001
Odhadovaný Ap	001
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	165 - Na základě 09 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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