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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2014 Sep 03 1403 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
03 Sep 2014	139	011
04 Sep 2014	142	012
05 Sep 2014	147	006

Bulletin

The strongest flare of the past 24 hours was the C4.0 flare peaking at 02:53 UT today in the active region at the east-south-east limb. The corresponding sunspot group (still unnumbered by both NOAA and Catania) just appeared from behind the limb around 08:00 UT today. This active region has also just produced the M2.5 flare peaking at 13:54 UT. We expect flaring activity up to the M-level, primarily from this sunspot group and perhaps also from the Catania sunspot group 40 (NOAA AR 2152) that maintains the beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A partial halo CME was detected yesterday in association with the eruption of a long filament in the northern hemisphere. The CME first appeared in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 16:36 UT, had angular width around 190 degrees and the projected plane-of-the-sky speed around 450 km/s. Despite the position of the CME source region not far from the solar disk center, the bulk of the CME material went northward of the ecliptic plane. The arrival of the corresponding ICME and even of the ICME-driven shock at the Earth is unlikely, so no resulting geomagnetic disturbance is expected. The solar proton flux has stabilized below the SEP event threshold. We maintain the warning condition for a proton event. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 400 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 070, basierend auf 17 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 02 Sep 2014

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	136
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	014
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	014
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	078 - Basierend auf 19 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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