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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Nov 01 1251 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
01 Nov 2024	270	005
02 Nov 2024	270	012
03 Nov 2024	270	023

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at very high levels with multiple M-class flares and an X2.0-flare with start time 21:12 UTC, end time 21:27 UTC, peak time 21:20 UTC on Oct 31st, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA Active Region 3878). There are eleven numbered active regions on the visible solar disc with SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA Active Region 3878) and SIDC Sunspot Group 273 (NOAA Active Region 3869) being the largest and most complex ones, classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta. SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA Active Region 3878) was responsible for most of the of flaring activity together with SIDC Sunspot Group 298 (NOAA Active Region 3876, magnetic type beta-gamma) and an isolated low M-class flaring contribution from SIDC Sunspot Group 297 (NOAA Active Region 3875, magnetic type beta), which exhibited further growth. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate to high levels over the coming days with likely M-class flaring and 35% chances for X-flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have been indicative of the continuous influence of a high speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole. The interplanetary magnetic field was slightly elevated reaching a maximum value of 10.4 nT with a minimum Bz of -8.1 nT. The solar wind velocity was varying between 377 km/s and 620 km/s. The B field phi angle remained predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at slightly elevated conditions over the next 24 hours and return to background slow solar wind regime until probable high speed stream arrivals from two negative polarity coronal holes and a possible minor glancing blow arrival on Nov 3rd and Nov 4th.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quite to active and locally over Belgium quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with remaining chances of isolated active conditions. Quiet to active conditions are expected for Nov 3rd with chances of reaching minor storm levels on Nov 3rd and Nov 4th.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has gradually decreased bellow the 10 pfu minor radiation storm threshold with an intermediate enhancement possibly related to the observed X-class flaring. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to decrease towards nominal levels over the 24 hours with chances for new enhancements related to anticipated high levels of solar eruptive activity.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and could reach the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 212, basierend auf 06 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 31 Oct 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	227
10cm Solarflux	270
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	010
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	010
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	213 - Basierend auf 19 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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