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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2026 Jul 10 1250 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
10 Jul 2026	107	022
11 Jul 2026	105	025
12 Jul 2026	103	021

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was very low over the past 24 hours. The X-ray flux was below C level. The largest flare was a B7.5 flare peaking on Jul 10 at 05:16 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA Active Region 4485). During the flare, the source region (SIDC Sunspot Group 909) of the flare had Beta-Gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 6 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Groups 909 and 910 (NOAA Active Region 4485 and 4482) are the most complex groups with their Beta-Gamma magnetic configurations, but they have produced only B-class flares over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A faint coronal mass ejections (CME) was first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images around 08:00 on Jul 09. This was possibly associated to a C2.7 flare (S13 W27, SIDC flare 8178) produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA Active Region 4485) on Jul 09 (peak time 07:13). First analysis shows that this CME has a projected width of about 50 deg and projected speed of about 300 km/s. This CME may miss or may not be detectable at Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters were disturbed under the influence of high-speed streams (HSSs) from the equatorial, negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 170) which crossed the central meridian during Jul 06-07. The solar wind speed ranged between 420 km/s to 650 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 5 nT to 13 nT. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -9 and 8 nT. In the next 24 hours, enhanced solar wind parameters are expected with the further arrival of HSSs from the same coronal hole. While the arrival of an interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME) related to the Jul 07 CME (associated to a filament eruption on NE) remains possible, the probability is low.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 2 to 4), due to the arrival of high- speed streams (HSSs) from the equatorial, negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 170) which crossed the central meridian during Jul 06-07. We expect unsettled to minor storm conditions (K 3 to 4) in the next 24 hours, with the further arrival of HSSs from the same coronal hole and possible (but low probability) arrival of an interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME) related to the Jul 07 CME (associated to a filament eruption on NE).

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18 satellite, increased and exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold level around 17:10 UTC on Jul 09. It was then fluctuating around the threshold level and is currently above it. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-19 satellite, mostly remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours, and is currently above it since 11:10 UTC on Jul 10. The electron flux may fluctuate around the threshold level in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 079, basierend auf 22 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 09 Jul 2026

Wolf-Zahl Catania	103
10cm Solarflux	110
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	020
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	019
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	083 - Basierend auf 29 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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