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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2026 Jul 11 1252 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
11 Jul 2026	105	017
12 Jul 2026	103	031
13 Jul 2026	101	031

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C6.0 flare (SIDC Flare 8182) peaking on July 10 at 14:59 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA Active Region 4485). During the flare, the source region (SIDC Sunspot Group 909) of the flare had Beta- Gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 6 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA Active Region 4485) is the most complex group with its Beta-Gamma magnetic configurations. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, possibly M-class flares and a very low chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A coronal mass ejections (CME) detected at 07:53 UTC on Jul 09 in LASCO C2 was further analysed using STEREO-A/COR2 images. This shows that this CME has a projected speed of about 750 km/s and a projected width of about 60 deg. This CME was possibly associated to a C2.7 flare (S13 W27, SIDC flare 8178) produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA Active Region 4485) on Jul 09 (peak time 07:13). With its source region closer to the central meridian, a glancing blow is possible at Earth on Jul 12. Another CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images around 15:36 on Jul 10. It was associated to a C6.0 flare (SIDC Flare 8182, S15 W46) peaking on Jul 10 at 14:59 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA Active Region 4485). This CME has a projected width of about 80 deg and projected speed of about 650 km/s. A glancing blow associated to this CME may be possible at Earth on Jul 13. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour.

Koronale Löcher

SIDC Coronal Hole 162 (recurrent, mid-latitude extension of polar-north coronal hole with a negative polarity) has started to cross the central meridian on Jul 10. The associated high-speed streams are expected to arrive at Earth on Jul 13 but the probability is low due to the coronal hole's location.

Sonnenwind

Solar wind parameters are transitioning from fast to slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged between 485 km/s and 685 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 3 nT to 6 nT. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -4 and 4 nT. Enhanced solar wind parameters are possible in the next 24 hours, due to the arrival of high-speed streams (but low probability) from the SIDC Coronal Hole 171 (very small, negative polarity) that crossed the central meridian on Jul 09, as well as due to possible glancing blow related to the Jul 09 CME (associated to a flaring activity produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA Active Region 4485)).

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3). We expect unsettled to minor storm conditions (K 3 to 5) in the next 24 hours, with the arrival of high-speed streams (but low probability) from the SIDC Coronal Hole 171 (very small, negative polarity) that crossed the central meridian on Jul 09, as well as due to possible glancing blow related to the Jul 09 CME (associated to a flaring activity produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA Active Region 4485)).

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, predominantly remained above the 1000 pfu threshold level, except electron flux measured by GOES-19 was below threshold level briefly around midnight. The electron flux may remain above the threshold level in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 077, basierend auf 20 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 10 Jul 2026

Wolf-Zahl Catania	127
10cm Solarflux	107
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	013
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	014
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	080 - Basierend auf 30 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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