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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2026 Jul 12 1256 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
12 Jul 2026	111	021
13 Jul 2026	110	024
14 Jul 2026	109	019

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 1 M-class flare identified. The largest flare was a M1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 8193) peaking on July 12 at 00:57 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA Active Region 4485). During the flare, the source region (SIDC Sunspot Group 909) of the flare had Beta- Gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 5 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA Active Region 4485) is the most complex group with its Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration, and it has produced a M-class flare over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, possibly M-class flares, and a very low chance for X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A coronal mass ejections (CME) was first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images around 01:08 on Jul 12. It was associated to C5.9 flare (SIDC Flare 8192, S15 W66) peaking on Jul 12 at 00:57 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA Active Region 4485). Associated type IV radio burst was also detected during the flaring activity. This CME has a projected width of about 115 deg and projected speed of about 460 km/s, and it is expected to miss the Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour.

Koronale Löcher

SIDC Coronal Hole (CH) 172, spanning 9 S - 3 N (very small, positive polarity) has crossed the central meridian during July 11-12. The high-speed streams from this CH may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on Jul 15.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters were again enhanced due to the arrival of high-speed streams (HSSs) either from the SIDC Coronal Hole 171 (very small, negative polarity) that crossed the central meridian during Jul 06-07 or from another SIDC Coronal Hole (CH) 171 (very small, negative polarity) that crossed the central meridian on July 09. The solar wind speed ranged between 490 km/s and 595 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 3 nT and 9 nT. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -7 and 5 nT. In the next 24 hours, we expect a gradual transition from fast to slow solar wind, unless glancing blow related to the Jul 09 CME (associated to a flaring activity produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA Active Region 4485)) arrives late at Earth and enhances the solar wind parameters.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 4), due to the arrival of high- speed streams (HSSs) either from the SIDC Coronal Hole 171 (very small, negative polarity) that crossed the central meridian during Jul 06-07 or from another SIDC Coronal Hole (CH) 171 (very small, negative polarity) that crossed the central meridian on July 09. We expect quiet to active conditions (K 1 to 4) in the next 24 hours unless glancing blow related to the Jul 09 CME (associated to a flaring activity produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA Active Region 4485)) arrives late at Earth and enhances the geomagnetic conditions to minor storm level (K=5).

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. Any major eruption from the SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA Active Region 4485), during the next 24 hours, could be possibly associated with a proton event.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, predominantly remained above the 1000 pfu threshold level, except for a brief interval from around 08:00 UTC to 11:00 UTC on July 12. It is currently above the threshold level and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 068, basierend auf 22 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 11 Jul 2026

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	112
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	009
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	009
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	077 - Basierend auf 26 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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