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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2026 Jul 13 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
13 Jul 2026	105	008
14 Jul 2026	107	013
15 Jul 2026	109	010

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity has been low over the past 24 hours, with few C-class flares. The strongest flare was a C2.6 flare (SIDC Flare 8194) peaking at 13:58 UTC on July 12, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA Active Region 4485, magnetic type beta). There are currently five numbered active regions on the solar disk, four of which have a beta magnetic configuration. SIDC Sunspot Group 909 (NOAA Active Region 4485) is currently rotating across the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 906 (NOAA Active Region 4481) has decayed into plage. SIDC Sunspot Group 916 (magnetic type alpha) has rotated on disk from the east limb, in the southeast quadrant. The solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery during the past 24 hours.

Koronale Löcher

A southern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 173) crossed the central meridian in the UTC afternoon on July 12. A mild high-speed stream may arrive at Earth starting from July 15.

Sonnenwind

Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (SOLAR-1 and ACE) reflected a gradual return to slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased from 520 km/s to around 430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was between from 2 nT and 7 nT. The Bz component varied between -3 nT and 4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle phi was predominantly in the negative sector. Mostly slow solar wind conditions are expected initially over the next 24 hours, with a chance for enhanced conditions in case of a high-speed stream arrival from the northern, negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 162) and the possible arrival of a glancing blow associated with SIDC CME 686.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally reached minor storm levels (NOAA Kp 5- ) between 12:00 UTC and 15:00 UTC on July 12, later decreasing to mostly quiet levels (NOAA Kp 2). Geomagnetic conditions locally reached active levels (K Bel 4) between 14:00 UTC and 20:00 UTC on July 12. Mostly quiet conditions are expected over the next 24 hours

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold during the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 was above the 1000 pfu threshold between 11:00 UTC on July 12 and 01:40 UTC on July 13. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 19 was above the 1000 pfu threshold between 11:30 UTC on July 12 and 19:00 UTC on July 13. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain mostly below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels but it is expected to decrease to normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 045, basierend auf 22 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 12 Jul 2026

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	107
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	024
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	024
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	069 - Basierend auf 25 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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