Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 Apr 27 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity declined to low levels. Regions 3638 (S18, L=231), 3639 (N30W90, Axx/alpha) and 3647 (S13, L=217) produced C-class flare activity during the period, the largest a C6.6 at 26/0636 UTC from Region 3639. Region 3654 (S08W08, Eai/beta-gamma) remained the largest region on the disk, but was quiet. The region did indicate some slight area decay. Minor development was observed in Region 3658 (S23W60, Dro/beta). The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

Forecast

Moderate levels of solar activity are expected on 27 Apr, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong). Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with M-class flare activity likely on 28 Apr decreasing to a chance on 29 Apr as the cluster of complex regions rotate around the SW limb.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast

There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels on 27 Apr due to the flare potential and location of multiple active regions. The 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels on 28-29 Apr. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 27-29 Apr.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind conditions became weakly enhanced at around 26/0018 UTC. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 13 nT at 26/1510 UTC, while the Bz component was sustained southward most of the period, by as much as -11 nT 26/1250 UTC. Solar wind speed peaked at 387 km/s at 26/0116 UTC and slowly decreased to low speeds near 305 km/s near the end of the period. The phi angle was predominately negative through about 26/1500 UTC when the orientation switched to positive.

Forecast

Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 27-29 Apr due to CH HSS influences and possible transient activity associated with multiple CMEs that are expected to pass in close proximity over the next few days.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels.

Forecast

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels on 27-28 Apr, and quiet to unsettled levels on 29 Apr, due to the anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined with potential transient influence of multiple near-miss CMEs from the past several days. A chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods exists on 27-28 Apr should these features arrive at Earth and carry periods of significant southward Bz.