Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2025 Apr 09 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity reached moderate levels with an M1.5/1b flare from Region 4048 (S16W61, Fac/beta-gamma) at 28/2222 UTC. Moderate decay was observed in Region 4048 over the course of the period. Consolidation and minor growth was observed in Region 4054 (S12W37, Dso/beta). New Region 4058 (N17W18, Dao/beta) was numbered and exhibited growth in its trailer spots. The other numbered regions were either stable or in slight decay. Other activity included an approximate 7 degree filament eruption centered near N13E57 that began at 08/0520 UTC. An associated CME was observed off the ENE limb at 08/0600 UTC. Modeling of the event showed the potential for a grazing blow around midday on 11 Apr. A number of active filaments were observed after 09/0000 UTC, but so far no Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 09-11 Apr.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak value of 10,300 pfu at 08/1730 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels on 09-11 Apr due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters were enhanced under negative polarity CH HSS influence. Total field was mostly between 8-11 nT while the Bz component was between +/-11 nT. Solar wind speed averaged ~500 km/s over the period. Phi angle was negative.

Forecast

Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced due to multiple negative polarity CH HSSs traversing the western hemisphere. The is a chance for a further enhancement around midday on 11 Apr due to glancing influence from the 08 Apr CME.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming levels due to persistent CH HSS effects.

Forecast

Activity from multiple CH HSSs are expected to influence the geomagnetic field over 09-11 Apr causing unsettled to active conditions, with isolated G1 (Minor) storming on 09 Apr. Addition influence from the 08 Apr CME is possible on 11 Apr.