Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2026 Feb 15 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest event of the period was a C6.0 flare at 14/1113 UTC from Region 4374 (N10E02, Hsx/alpha). New Regions 4376 (N13E54, Axx/alpha) and 4377 (N09E68, Cao/beta) were numbered, though foreshortening affects complicates the classification of the later. The remaining regions were stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 17 Feb.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 15-16 Feb, before increasing to high levels on 17 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 17 Feb.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters were consistent with waning negative polarity CH HSS effects with potential embedded transients for most of the reporting period, with the total magnetic field (Bt) averaging 7 nT, Bz (north-south) component primarily northward averaging ~4 nT, with wind speeds decreasing from ~500 km/s to ~350 km/s and a largely positive (away from the Sun) Phi angle. Starting at ~14/1600 UTC, wind speeds began to increase again, with the Phi angle switching into a largely negative (towards the Sun) orientation. At 1835 UTC, Bt began to increase, reaching a max of 15 nT at 1947 UTC, and Bz deflected strongly southward and sustained that orientation through the end of the reporting period, obtaining a max deflection of -14 nT at 1957 UTC. Wind speeds peaked near 550 km/s at the end of the period.

Forecast

The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through 17 Feb due to CIR influences followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. Weak CME enhancements are possible on 15 Feb as a CME from 11 Feb passes in close proximity.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.

Forecast

Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 15-16 Feb, with a chance for isolated G2 (Moderate) storming on 15 Feb, due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Weak CME enhancements are possible on 15 Feb as a CME from 11 Feb passes in close proximity. 17 Feb is expected to reach active levels.