Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 Jun 24 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary
Solar activity reached moderate (R2/Moderate) levels. New Region 3723 (S18E67, Dao/beta) produced an impulsive M9.3/1n flare at 23/1301 UTC. This new region appears to be the return of old Region 3697 which was a major flare producer on its previous transit. Region 3716 (N10W85, Eko/beta) produced an M2.4/1n flare at 23/0630 UTC. Region 3712 (S25W90, Eao/beta-gamma) produced an M1.2/Sf flare at 23/1137 UTC. Regions 3712 and 3716, along with Region 3713 (S14W78, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta), were seen to be in decay as they approached the W limb. Three new regions were numbered this period. Region 3724 (S11E48, Hsx/alpha) was the southern spot in Region 3722 (S14E50, Hsx/alpha) as it appears to be two separate regions. New Regions 3725 (N18E41, Dai/beta-delta) and 3726 (S02E57, Cao/beta) were numbered. The remaining regions were stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.
Forecast
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 24-26 Jun, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3 or greater) during that period.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
Forecast
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 24-26 Jun. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels on 24-26 Jun.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary
Solar wind parameters became enhanced after 23/0200 UTC due to possible CIR effects preceding negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total field strength reached a peak of 12 nT and the Bz component was sustained southward, by as much as -11 nT, between 23/0600-0900 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased from a low of 300 km/s to 350-375 km/s. The phi angle was in a mostly negative orientation through the second half of the period.
Forecast
Negative polarity CH HSS influences and mildly enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 24 Jun. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected to prevail on 25-26 Jun.

Geospace

24 h Summary
The geomagnetic field was quiet and unsettled due to possible CIR effects.
Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach quiet to unsettled levels on 24 Jun, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 25-26 Jun.

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