Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 Dec 11 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar flare activity remained at moderate levels with three M-Class (R1-R2 Moderate) flares over the period. The largest flare was an M2.7 at 11/1006 UTC from Region 3920 (N22E17, Dso/beta). Region 3922 (S17E52, Cso/beta) produced two low-level M-class flares while continuing to rotate into view. Region 3923 (N24W30, Bxo/beta) was numbered but has been inactive. All other regions have been relatively quiet. CME activity off the SSE is first visible in C2 imagery near 11/0600 UTC. The ejecta is expected to be south of the Sun-Earth line, however the event is being further analyzed at the time of this summary.

Forecast

R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) levels 11-13 Dec based primarily on the flare potential of Regions 3920 and 3922.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels over 11-13 Dec.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters decreased to nominal levels. Total field has been around 5-6 nT, with a variable Bz component between -6 to 4 nT. Solar wind speeds have averaged ~400 km/s for most of the period. The phi angle has remained mostly in the positive (away from the Sun) orientation.

Forecast

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels on 11-13 Dec.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field has been quiet.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is likely to remain at quiet levels on 11-13 Dec.