Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2026 Jun 05 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity remained at low levels, with low-level C-class flares recorded from Regions 4455 (N15W41, Dki/beta-gamma), 4457 (S08W79, Cso/beta) and 4459 (N14E17, Dai/beta-gamma). There are seven numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 4455 remains magnetically complex and continues to maintain an anti-Hale configuration, though it simplified slightly by losing the brief delta configuration observed yesterday. Flux emergence and structural growth have slowed within Region 4455, but maintained a mixed magnetic configuration ahead of its mature, positive polarity lead spot. Region 4458 (S04W30, Dai/beta) continued to display gradual growth and consolidation of its penumbral area, maintaining a complex gamma configuration. Region 4457 showed growth accompanied with new flux emergence. New Region 4463 (N16E70, Hsx/alpha) was numbered during the period. All other regions on the disk were stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels through 07 June. While the recent simplification of Region 4455 has decreased flaring risk, the continuing complexity of that region in addition to that of 4458 and 4459 maintains a high chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flaring with a slight chance for X-class (R3/Strong or greater) events.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels, with a peak flux of 372 pfu observed at 04/2025 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is anticipated to rise to high levels on 05 June in response to CME effects, and remain high through 07 June. While the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold, proton enhancements are possible on 05 June due to CME shock front interactions.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels through 05/0424 UTC. Winds speeds ranged mainly from about 375 to 450 km/s. Total magnetic field (Bt) was weak at 2-7 nT with the (Bz) component at +/-2 nT. The phi angle recorded several boundary crossings through the period. At 05/0424 UTC, wind parameters escalated rapidly with appeared to be the arrival of the multiple 03 Jun CMEs. Bt increased from 7 nT to 17 nT and the Bz component increased northward from 6 to 16 nT and trended southward to -11 nT by about 05/1106 UTC. Wind speeds increased sharply from 395 km/s to a maximum of 582 km/s at 05/1047 UTC. Parameters remained enhanced through the remainder of the period.

Forecast

Solar wind conditions are anticipated to remain escalated on 05 Jun with the arrival of the multiple 03 June CMEs. Significant solar wind enhancements are expected to persist through 05 Jun, with elevated and disturbed conditions continuing into early to mid-day on 06 Jun before continuing to trend toward background on 07 Jun.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast

Geomagnetic field conditions are anticipated to reach G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming levels on 05 June in response to the arrival of the multiple 03 June CMEs. There remains a chance for isolated periods of G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storming during the peak of the multi-CME passage over 05 June. Conditions are expected to drop back to active levels, with a lingering chance for isolated G1 (Minor) storming thresholds on 06 June as CME effects gradually wane, followed by a return to mostly quiet to unsettled conditions on 07 June.