Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 Jul 27 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3761 (S09W86, Dao/beta-gamma) exhibited signs of decay in its trailing spots but produced an M1.7/Sf flare at 26/0442 UTC. Region 3762 (S12W20, Fac/beta-gamma-delta) grew in overall size while maintaining a weak delta signature. Regions 3768 (S16W00, Axx/alpha) and 3769 (N22E78, Hsx/alpha) were numbered this period, but were otherwise unremarkable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

Forecast

Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for X-class flares through 29 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned to near background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 29 Jul. A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event will persist through 29 Jul as the complex of spots consisting of ARs 3751 and 3761 rotate around the western limb.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters were enhanced early this period from what was likely CH HSS influences. Total field strength reached 17 nT and the Bz component underwent a few sustained southward deflections early in the day. Solar wind speeds peaked at approximately 600 km/s before settling near 500 km/s. Phi was positive outside of ~26/0400-26/0945 UTC, where it was in a negative orientation.

Forecast

Current conditions are likely to continue into 27 Jul with a further enhancement likely on 27 Jul due to glancing CME influences from the C4.5 flare events from AR 3751 on 23 Jul. A gradual wane to a more ambient-like environment is anticipated for 28 Jul. Another transient feature is possible on 29 Jul due to a broad area of dimming near center disk early on 25 Jul, however, confidence is low.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely to occur on 27 Jul with continued CH HSS influences in addition to possible glancing effects from the 23 Jul CME. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail on 28 Jul and any lingering CH HSS/CME effects are expected to subside. Quiet to active conditions are possible on 29 Jul due to the possible arrival of a transient associated with dimming near center disk early on 25 Jul.