Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 Sep 07 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3815 (S28E15, Fko/beta-gamma) produced a long duration M1.6/1F flare which peaked at 07/0749 UTC. AR 3815 experienced slight growth, but was overall little changed. Region 3806 (S08W67, Dsi/beta-gamma) was responsible for multiple C-class flares the largest of which was a C5.9 flare at 06/1919 UTC. Region 3817 (S14E37, Axx/alpha) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. The remaining active regions were relatively stable and quiet. From approximately 06/1602-1712 UTC, the western half of an approximately 17° long filament was observed erupting in GONG H-alpha imagery. However, analysis suggests that any material that managed to escape from this event will most likely not be Earth-directed. Additionally, a CME associated with the aforementioned M-class flare event was first spotted in C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at approximately 07/0712 UTC. Modeling if this event is currently underway to determine the presence of any Earth-directed component. Forecast... R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout events are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, on 07-09 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained elevated, but below the S1 (Minor) threshold.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels, with a slight chance for high levels, on 07-09 Sep. A slight chance remains for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm on 07-09 Sep due to the continued elevated particle levels, and the flare potential from multiple active regions.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters were near background levels. Total field primarily ranged 7-9 nT. The Bz component underwent a few minor southward deflections reaching -6 to -7 nT. Solar wind speeds varied between ~350 km/s to ~415 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative.

Forecast

Solar wind conditions are expected to remain near background levels on 07 Sep. By 08 Sep, a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a geoeffective position. Enhancements in the solar wind environment are anticipated, and are expected to continue through 09 Sep.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was at quiet and unsettled levels.

Forecast

Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 07 Sep. On 08 Sep, a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a geoeffective position, likely increasing conditions to mostly unsettled levels, with active periods likely. The elevated conditions are expected to persist into 09 Sep.