Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2025 Jan 18 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3964 (N06W34, Dki/beta-gamma) produced an M7.5 flare (R2-Moderate) at 17/1335 UTC, the largest event of the period. Additionally, 3964 produced an M1.7 flare at 18/0058 UTC. This flare event was associated with coronal dimming noted in GOES-16 195 imagery and a subsequent CME. This event is currently being modeled to determine the presence, if any, of an Earth-directed component. Regions 3959 (N19W02, Eko/beta) and 3961 (S08E18, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced C-class flares with the latter appearing to develop a weak delta signature trailing its large, leading spot. New spots were noted just south of AR 3962, but remain unnumbered at this time as we await additional corroborating observatory reports.

Forecast

Solar activity is likely to reach moderate to high levels over 18-20 Jan, with R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events likely, and a chance for R3 or greater events.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 20 Jan. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 18-20 Jan.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Weakening negative polarity CH HSS influences continued through the period. Total field decreased to 4-5 nT. The Bz component was primarily +/- 5 nT with a few brief southward deflections that reached -6 to -7 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from ~600 km/s to ~480 km/s. Phi was predominantly oriented in a negative solar sector.

Forecast

Negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected to continue through 20 Jan.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was at unsettled and active levels due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Forecast

Isolated periods of active conditions are expected on 18 Jan, with quiet and unsettled conditions likely over 19-20 Jan, due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences.