Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2026 Jan 15 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.6 at 14/2033 UTC from new Region 4341 (S10E70, Dkc/beta-gamma); spot classification of this region is complicated by limb proximity and foreshortening effects. New Region 4342 (N17E76, Cao/beta) rotated around the NE limb and was also numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance (25-30%) for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over 15-17 Jan.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 9,398 pfu at 14/1645 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux showed an increase after 14/2210 UTC (well below S1-Minor threshold) likely due to contamination from electron flux.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach high levels on 15-16 Jan. A brief return to moderate levels on 17 Jan is likely with the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters were elevated under continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. Solar wind speed ranged mostly between 450-570 km/s. Total magnetic field ranged from 2-9 nT while the Bz (north-south) component was between +6/-5 nT. Phi angle was negative (towards the Sun).

Forecast

Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually diminish over 15-16 Jan. Another enhancement in the solar wind is expected early on 17 Jan when a recurrent, positive polarity, CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective. Solar wind speed is likely to exceed 700 km/s based on recurrent data.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast

Quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 15 Jan followed by mostly quiet conditions on 16 Jan as negative polarity HSS activity diminishes. By early on 17 Jan, a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective, causing unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming, with a chance for G2 (Moderate).