Solar activity report
Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Feb 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05
Feb, 06 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 344 km/s at 03/1852Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
03/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
02/2158Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 10479 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (05 Feb) and active to minor storm levels on day three (06
Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 178 Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 006/005-010/016-018/027
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 55% | 65% |
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/03 | X1.5 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/03 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/28 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| February 2026 | 114 -10 |
| Last 30 days | 118.8 +9.2 |