Solar activity report

Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at 23/1301Z from Region 3723 (S18E67). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 377 km/s at 23/0544Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 23/0730Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 23/0731Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 408 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (24 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
Class M60%60%60%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton15%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Jun 196
  Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun 190/190/190
  90 Day Mean        23 Jun 176

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  006/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jun  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%20%20%

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