3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2025 Feb 15 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA scale G1).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 15-Feb 17 2025 is 5 (.67below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Feb 15       Feb 16       Feb 17
00-03UT       3.67         3.33         2.67     
03-06UT       3.67         3.00         2.67     
06-09UT       3.33         2.67         2.33     
09-12UT       3.00         2.00         2.33     
12-15UT       5.67 (G2)    2.00         2.33     
15-18UT       4.67 (G1)    4.00         2.33     
18-21UT       3.00         4.00         2.67     
21-00UT       3.67         3.33         2.00     

Rationale
There is a chance for G1-G2 (minor-moderate) storming in the later half of 15 Feb. There is a chance for G1 on 16 Feb due to a potential slight glancing blow from a CME that left the Sun on 14 Feb.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 15-Feb 17 2025

              Feb 15  Feb 16  Feb 17
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale
Due to the simplicity and low flaring probability of the regions moving onto and past the western limb, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) levels through 16 Feb.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Feb 14 2025 2057 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 15-Feb 17 2025

              Feb 15        Feb 16        Feb 17
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale
There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout events, with a slight chance of R3 (Strong) events, through 17 Feb.

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2025/01/04X1.85
Last M-flare2025/02/14M1.8
Last geomagnetic storm2025/01/04Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
January 2025137 -17.5
February 2025140.8 +3.8
Last 30 days149.1 -1.7

This day in history*

Solar flares
12011X3.3
22023M2.0
32024M1.8
42016M1.71
52023M1.3
DstG
11978-108G3
21982-83
31990-79G3
42023-72G1
51980-68G3
*since 1994

Social networks