3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2024 Oct 22 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 22-Oct 24 2024 is 4 (.33below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Oct 22       Oct 23       Oct 24
00-03UT       4.33         2.67         2.67     
03-06UT       2.67         2.67         2.33     
06-09UT       2.67         2.33         2.00     
09-12UT       2.67         2.33         2.00     
12-15UT       2.67         2.33         2.00     
15-18UT       2.67         2.33         2.00     
18-21UT       2.67         2.33         2.00     
21-00UT       2.67         2.00         2.00     

Rationale

No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 22-Oct 24 2024

              Oct 22  Oct 23  Oct 24
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 22-Oct 24 2024

              Oct 22        Oct 23        Oct 24
R1-R2           50%           60%           60%
R3 or greater    5%           10%           10%

Rationale

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 22 Oct. Moderate flare levels are expected to increase to likely on 23-24 Oct, with a slight chance for R3-Strong levels on 23-24 Oct. This flare level increase is in anticipation of the return of old active Region 3842 (S15, L=180) which produced M and X flares on its last transit.