3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2024 Jul 22 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 22-Jul 24 2024 is 5 (.67NOAA scale G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Jul 22       Jul 23       Jul 24
00-03UT       2.00         1.33         3.67     
03-06UT       1.33         1.67         5.00 (G1)
06-09UT       2.33         2.33         5.67 (G2)
09-12UT       3.00         2.67         4.67 (G1)
12-15UT       3.67         2.33         3.67     
15-18UT       1.67         2.33         3.33     
18-21UT       1.67         2.33         2.67     
21-00UT       1.33         3.33         2.67     

Rationale
G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels are likely on 24 Jul due to the anticipated arrival of the 21 Jul CME.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 22-Jul 24 2024

              Jul 22  Jul 23  Jul 24
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale
There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms through 24 Jul.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jul 16 2024 1326 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 22-Jul 24 2024

              Jul 22        Jul 23        Jul 24
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely through 24 Jul, with a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) event, due to multiple complex regions on the visible disk.

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