3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2024 Jun 24 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 24-Jun 26 2024 is 2 (.67below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Jun 24       Jun 25       Jun 26
00-03UT       2.67         1.67         1.67     
03-06UT       2.00         2.00         2.00     
06-09UT       2.00         1.33         1.33     
09-12UT       2.00         1.33         1.33     
12-15UT       2.00         0.67         1.33     
15-18UT       2.00         1.33         1.00     
18-21UT       2.00         1.33         1.33     
21-00UT       2.33         1.67         1.67     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 24-Jun 26 2024

              Jun 24  Jun 25  Jun 26
S1 or greater   15%      5%      1%

Rationale
There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over 24-26 Jun.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jun 23 2024 1301 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 24-Jun 26 2024

              Jun 24        Jun 25        Jun 26
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are are likely over 24-26 Jun due to the flare potential from multiple active regions on the visible disk.

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