Viendo archivo del martes, 20 octubre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Oct 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 293 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 OCT 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8361 (N15W79) CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE C-CLASS SUBFLARES AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB.
SUBFLARES ALSO OCCURRED IN REGION 8358 (N17W93).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED IN REGION 8361. A SMALL M-CLASS FLARE
FROM THIS ACTIVE REGION IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM ACTIVE TO QUIET. THE 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX WAS MODERATE.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 OCT a 23 OCT
| Clase M | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 OCT 121 Previsto 21 OCT-23 OCT 120/118/115 Media de 90 Días 20 OCT 132
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 OCT 027/052 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 OCT 010/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 OCT-23 OCT 015/015-015/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 OCT a 23 OCT
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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