Viendo archivo del lunes, 19 octubre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Oct 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 292 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 OCT 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8361
(N14W66) GREW SLOWLY AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES, TWO OF WHICH
REACHED C-CLASS. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS A C7/1N AT 19/1231Z
ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR DISCRETE RADIO EMISSION. REGION 8358 (N15W82)
STABILIZED AS IT APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB. NO NEW REGIONS WERE
ASSIGNED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 8361 IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL C-CLASS
FLARES BEFORE DEPARTING THE WEST LIMB ON 22 OCTOBER. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM THIS REGION.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD REACHED STORM LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A CORONAL
MASS EJECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE OF 15
OCTOBER. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WERE DETECTED AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES WHILE THE HIGH LATITUDES EXPERIENCED ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM
LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH MINOR STORM LEVELS
POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO
A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE WIND STREAM.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 OCT a 22 OCT
| Clase M | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 OCT 118 Previsto 20 OCT-22 OCT 115/115/115 Media de 90 Días 19 OCT 132
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 OCT 007/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 OCT 035/050 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 OCT-22 OCT 015/030-015/020-015/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 OCT a 22 OCT
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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