Viendo archivo del jueves, 31 enero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jan 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 031 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Jan 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. An M3.6 flare
occurred at 31/1444 UTC from Region 9787 (S07 on the west limb).
Region 9800 (N07W18) and Region 9802 (S16E09) produced minor C-class
flares. Region 9802 continues to grow and now has an
Ekc/Beta-gamma-delta class, area of 650 millionths, 49 spots, and a
13 degree extent. Region 9800 has shown little change in the last
24 hours. Two new Regions were numbered today: Region 9808
(N15E54) and Region 9809 (S06E68).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9800 and Region 9802 have the
potential for producing major events.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Feb a 03 Feb
| Clase M | 65% | 65% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Jan 243 Previsto 01 Feb-03 Feb 240/240/235 Media de 90 Días 31 Jan 225
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Jan 001/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Jan 006/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Feb a 03 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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