Viendo archivo del miércoles, 4 septiembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Sep 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 247 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Sep 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Reigon 96 (S16E13)
produced a C2.5/Sf flare at 04/1454 UTC. Region 96 has developed a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration in the trailing spots. Region 95
(N08W03) has shown some decay in area coverage particularly in the
intermediate spots. A 16 degree solar filament lifted off the disk
at S35W05.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 95 and 96 have M-class potential.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storming levels. A
magnetic storm gradually commenced after 04/0000 UTC and sustained
negative Bz resulted in major storm levels. A weak transient was
observed by the NASA/ACE spacecraft at approximately 04/1800 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of active
conditions. The magnetic storm is expected to diminish early on day
one of the forecast period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
may reach moderate to high levels on day two and three due to
coronal hole effects.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Sep a 07 Sep
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Sep 171 Previsto 05 Sep-07 Sep 165/170/180 Media de 90 Días 04 Sep 170
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Sep 005/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Sep 037/040 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Sep a 07 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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