Viendo archivo del martes, 1 octubre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Oct 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 274 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Oct 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 134 (N12W15) and
Region 137 (S18E21) both produced low C-class flares during the
period. Region 134 continues to retain a delta magnetic
configuration and has grown in overall area coverage. Region 137
has also grown in area coverage and developed a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. A new region was numbered today as Region 138
(N09W11).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 134 and 137 both have potential for producing
an M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm conditions.
Although the exact source for this activity is unknown, solar wind
data suggests a transient signature.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Active periods are
possible on 02-03 October due to several CME's observed on 30
September.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Oct a 04 Oct
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Oct 140 Previsto 02 Oct-04 Oct 140/145/145 Media de 90 Días 01 Oct 178
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Sep 021/026 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Oct 030/035 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 010/015-015/020-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Oct a 04 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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