Viendo archivo del miércoles, 2 octubre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Oct 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 275 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Oct 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Several C-class events
occurred with most from Region 137 (S18E08). This region continues
to grow in areal coverage and spot count. A new region was numbered
today as Region 139 (N14E72).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. A chance for an isolated M-class event exists from
Region 134 (N13W29) and Region 137.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to sever storm conditions.
The disturbance in the solar wind from yesterday continued and
sustained several hours of a southward Bz.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels through the first day of
the forecast period. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for
the remainder of the forecast.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Oct a 05 Oct
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Oct 136 Previsto 03 Oct-05 Oct 140/145/150 Media de 90 Días 02 Oct 178
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Oct 030/060 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Oct 035/045 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 015/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Oct a 05 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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