Viendo archivo del miércoles, 16 octubre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Oct 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 289 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Oct 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of
the period was a C7/Sf flare from Region 160 (S20E28) that occurred
at 16/0314 UTC. This region has seen steady growth in penumbral
coverage today. Region 149 (N14W20) produced only lesser C-class
flares during the period. There was slight growth observed in total
number of spots today in this region and the beta-gamma magnetic
structure became more apparent during the period. An optically
uncorrelated long duration C6 x-ray flare occurred at 16/1627 UTC.
There were insufficient imagery at the time of this writing to
determine whether a CME was associated with this event. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with an isolated
period of minor storm conditions at high latitudes between
16/1800-2100 UTC. The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite
hinted at the possibility of a weak shock passage commencing shortly
after 16/1600 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels with
periods of active conditions possible throughout the forecast
period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Oct a 19 Oct
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Oct 183 Previsto 17 Oct-19 Oct 180/175/175 Media de 90 Días 16 Oct 182
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Oct 013/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Oct 012/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 010/012-010/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Oct a 19 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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