Viendo archivo del jueves, 17 octubre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Oct 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 290 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Oct 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 158 (S08E11)
produced the largest flare of the period which was a C3.5/Sf that
occurred at 17/1207 UTC. Penumbral growth was seen in the trailing
cluster of spots in this northeast-southwest orientated spot
complex. A weak gamma magnetic structure also became evident today.
Several lesser C-class flares were also attributed to this region.
Region 149 (N14W33) showed slight decay and produced a single
optically correlated long duration event, flare maximum reached
C3.0/Sf at 17/1805 UTC. Weak magnetic gamma structure seen
yesterday is no longer apparent. New region 162 (N25E76) was
assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 149 and 158 are capable of producing low level
M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. An
isolated active period occurred between 17/0000-0300 UTC at high
latitudes.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Active
conditions are possible on day one due to elevated solar wind speed.
Day three may see active conditions in response to a relatively
small, yet favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Oct a 20 Oct
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Oct 179 Previsto 18 Oct-20 Oct 185/185/180 Media de 90 Días 17 Oct 182
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Oct 009/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Oct 010/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 010/015-008/012-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Oct a 20 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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