Viendo archivo del martes, 12 noviembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Nov 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 316 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Nov 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. A long duration
C7/0f event was observed at 11/2255 UTC from Region 191 (S18E25).
An optically uncorrelated Type II radio sweep was observed at
12/0356 UTC. The LASCO/SOHO imagery indicates this activity may
have originated from Region 188 (N10W61). Region 180 (S11W82)
produced an M2/1n event at 12/1856 UTC. A new region was numbered
today as Region 193 (S02E21).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 180 and 191 have potential to produce an
M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been predominately quiet to unsettled with
one period of active conditions observed at high latitudes at
12/1500 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 13-14 November as a possible
result of the CME associated with the M1/1n observed 11/1620 UTC.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to return on 15 November.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Nov a 15 Nov
| Clase M | 80% | 70% | 50% |
| Clase X | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Nov 178 Previsto 13 Nov-15 Nov 175/170/175 Media de 90 Días 12 Nov 178
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Nov 010/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Nov 012/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 020/020-015/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Nov a 15 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 40% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 50% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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