Viendo archivo del miércoles, 13 noviembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Nov 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 317 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Nov 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity fell to low levels for the period. The
largest event was a long duration C3.2 x-ray enhancement, observed
during 13/0341-0552 UTC without a correlated optical report. Some
episodes of lesser C-class flare activity were produced by Region
191 (S18E12) later in the period. This region has continued to
exhibit a trend of increasing size and spot count and moderate
magnetic complexity. Region 180 (S11W94) produced some bright loops
visible in H-alpha early in the period, but was mostly quiescent as
it transited the west limb today. New Regions 194 (S16E43) and 195
(S15E78) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the next three days. Region 191 appears to be a
likely source of M-class activity for the forecast period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled, with some isolated
quiet and active periods.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly unsettled through day one of the forecast
period. A trend toward more active conditions, with isolated minor
storm conditions possible, is expected by day three of the forecast
period due to the anticipated onset of coronal hole high speed
stream effects.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Nov a 16 Nov
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Nov 182 Previsto 14 Nov-16 Nov 175/175/175 Media de 90 Días 13 Nov 178
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Nov 009/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Nov 011/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 010/012-012/015-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Nov a 16 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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