Viendo archivo del miércoles, 21 mayo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 141 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 May 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 362 (S12W03)
produced a C1 flare at 0604Z and continues to exhibit a beta gamma
magnetic configuration. A nine-degree solar filament disappeared
near N19W05 at 20/0005Z. No Earth directed CME was observed in
LASCO imagery.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 362 and 364 have the potential for C-class
flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Periods of
southward Bz near -10 nT resulted in two active periods during the
day. Solar wind speed began a steady increase, most likely due to
the onset of an equatorial coronal hole high speed flow. Wind speed
increased from 400 km/s to over 600 km/s and continues to rise.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. The coronal hole high
speed flow is expected to produce active conditions during the
period with a chance of isolated minor storming particularly at the
higher latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 May a 24 May
| Clase M | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 May 119 Previsto 22 May-24 May 125/135/140 Media de 90 Días 21 May 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 May 009/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 May 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 015/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 May a 24 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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