Viendo archivo del martes, 17 junio 2003

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 17 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 168 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Jun 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z

IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar

IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z

IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica

III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Jun a 20 Jun

Clase M	40%	40%	40%
Clase X	20%	20%	20%
Protón	30%	20%	20%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo

  Observado       17 Jun 122
  Previsto   18 Jun-20 Jun  125/120/120
  Media de 90 Días        17 Jun 125

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A

  Observado Afr/Ap 16 Jun  020/032
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 17 Jun  040/050
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  020/030-020/030-020/025

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Jun a 20 Jun

A. Latitudes Medias
Activo	35%	40%	40%
Tormenta Menor	15%	20%	20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa	05%	05%	05%

B. Latitudes Altas
Activo	40%	50%	50%
Tormenta Menor	20%	25%	25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa	10%	15%	15%

VII Comment: K-Indices: On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the H-trace on the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. GOES Protons: To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. Beginning 1700 UTC on June 18, GOES 11 (105W) will become the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

All times in UTC

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