Viendo archivo del lunes, 14 julio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jul 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 195 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Jul 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 409 (N15E55)
produced several C-class events through the period. The largest was
a C8 flare at 14/0120 UTC which was optically correlated with the
SXI imagery. This region has grown in white light area and sunspot
count and exhibits a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
predominately low. Region 409 has the potential to produce an
isolated M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be primarily unsettled to active through the period.
Isolated minor storm conditions are possible with the passage of a
coronal hole high speed wind stream
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Jul a 17 Jul
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Jul 127 Previsto 15 Jul-17 Jul 130/130/125 Media de 90 Días 14 Jul 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Jul 009/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Jul 018/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 020/025-020/025-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Jul a 17 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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