Viendo archivo del martes, 12 agosto 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Aug 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 224 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Aug 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels today. Regions
424 (S18W67) and 431 (S13E30) produced several low level B and
C-class flares during the period. Region 424 has shown a continued
decay in penumbral coverage yet remains a beta-gamma magnetic class
group. Region 431 underwent little change today and also retains a
beta-gamma magnetic structure. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream that became effective early
in the period is believed to be responsible for the elevated
conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels through day one of
the forecast period due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole
stream. A decrease to predominantly unsettled with isolated active
conditions are possible by day two as the coronal hole wanes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Aug a 15 Aug
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Aug 123 Previsto 13 Aug-15 Aug 120/120/125 Media de 90 Días 12 Aug 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Aug 009/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Aug 020/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 020/035-012/020-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Aug a 15 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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